Stock market

The Bull Market Of 2022 | Did We Just Hit Bottom?

Let’s discuss the flattening Yield Curve, Why Facebook Started Declining, and the future of Cryptocurrency – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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FLATTENING YIELD CURVE:
This occurs when SHORT TERM 2 YEAR BORROWING RATES INCREASE, while LONG TERM 10 YEAR RATES DECREASE…thereby signaling that investors see MORE risk investing in the short term than they do in the long term.

When this happens, it’s used as an indicator that economic growth is expected to slow down, and IF those yields invert – meaning, the 2 year bond pays more than the 10 year bond…it’s typically a warning sign of an upcoming recession. Even if we look back, in history…an inverted yield curve has correctly signaled nine recessions since 1955, with only one false positive in the 1960’s…where there was economic slowdown, but no official recession. 

Although, in this case…even though Credit Suisse says we currently have a 25% chance of an upcoming recession…they explain that, since people have so much much money saved – more than usual is held within 10 year treasuries, thereby pushing yields down slightly more than usual…giving us a higher chance of a “false positive” recession signal…

USUALLY…when people refer to a “recession,” the first thing that comes to mind is a falling stock market, declining real estate values, high unemployment, and an overall “BAD economy” – but, TECHNICALLY, a recession occurs when we see “two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP”…or, in more simple terms – that just means that our economy begins to shrink, as fewer goods and services are produced…HOWEVER…when it comes to the stock market…here’s what I found really surprising:

Since 1950…not every recession coincided with the stock market going down…according to them, “On average, the market declines 5.3% during an economic recession…. the worst drop totaled a loss of -36.4% and the stock market’s best gain totaled +16.6%.” On top of that, “We won’t know we are in a recession until we have been in for six months. Hence, predicting one is a fool’s errand,”

Although – it DOES SEEM as though – when you look throughout the last 70 YEARS…every recession, so far, has marked a great buying opportunity – where, within the following 3-5 years, prices are significantly higher than where they started. So, short term – IF a recession happens, prices tend to go down – BUT NOT ALWAYS – and, in the big picture – if stocks do DECLINE…they’ve always signaled the relative “low” of the market.

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55 Comments

  1. I am a financial analyst with a bachelors degree in finance, and the way you explain things is so refreshing. Quick, simple yet effective. Love the content

  2. Graham, I’d do anything to work for you for free. I could really use you as my mentor.

  3. Hey, great video, a friend advised me to buy into NFT games at the moment. Do you think its a smart move? He said i should put all my money into Spellfire and Skyweaver, but i am not sure i should do that. Any advise?

  4. Giving users the autonomy to choose who sees their data and information is the right thing to do regardless of the cost. The cost is evidence that the ethically superior approach to marketing was not adopted initially.

  5. We don’t like our data being sold… And fakebook has more problems than just simply illegally selling data… Up chuck Zuck’s time is limited…

  6. It makes sense that PayPal’s numbers are down since we’re all going to be taxed on transactions totaling $600 or more.

  7. PayPal says spending has begun to decrease? Maybe PayPal forgot that they are reporting to the IRS if more than $600 is moved in to someone’s account within a year. The vote for this failed but everyone is doing it now.

  8. That graph at 7:48 is golden. Never seen a log scale of the SnP where it puts into perspective the inflation factor. You look at normal graphs and always wonder why the recent market growth always flatlines the historical data.

  9. This is mediocre advice. Read Unscripted: The Great Rat Race Escape by MJ Demarco to learn how to live a better life.

  10. Bull market 😂 ya you better just stick to pumping out YouTube videos and getting that ad revenue sponsor revenue stock market is going to be crap all year up-and-down bud

  11. Meta is going to rebound. While I think the company is overhyping the metaverse and its potential, there’s too much money in targeted advertising for Meta to consistently miss earnings expectations like last quarter

  12. Bro, you would need OVER 50% to say they’d be more likely to date the person for that statistic to mean anything positive lool

  13. I think Apple’s update is amazing. Even when considering all the negatives you mentioned, everyone has a right to their privacy.

  14. If 14500 does not hold for NDX, then high probability bottom is going to be 10k-12500. Range . ✅

  15. It would be great to learn about your research and content creation process :)

  16. Hey Graham, I’m sorry to say that its time for me to unsubscribe. I understand that you want to be creating content at the rate of MeetKevin but you’ve begun sacrificing quantity over quality like him. It seems like your channel is becoming a doomsday news headline channel and it’s unfortunate because I used to really enjoy your content. I appreciate everything you’ve taught me about personal finance. Thank you.

  17. Yes, financial crash will not coming ahead, the market already crash on bubble stocks and will moving ahead, Fed tapering is already under expected. market ahead may be up and down a bit, but not a historical crash again just like 2008.

  18. Capital gains tax is mostly a scam anyway. If you buy a cow then sell it after the federal reserve plundered the nation with inflation, why should you pay a tax on “gains,” when the asset and it’s real value stayed the same…

  19. Graham please react to Jordan Belfort , you can have leonardo dicaprio as the thumbnail for the clicks lol

  20. One day it’s market crashing sell everything, next day it’s bull market back on buy buy buy

  21. There is a subtle buzzing noise in the background? And it’s In the whole video, it’s annoying?

  22. Apple and Google together can annihilate Facebook if they want to. 💥

  23. Finally! A clickbait thumbnail picture where Graham’s mouth isnt wide open……

  24. Wtf dude, I’ve been following your videos for the last fortnight or so, you post that markets will crash then you post markets are going into a bull run. Decide properly 😂

  25. I see the cute hamster two times, so I clicked the like button twice.
    You’re welcome